Stats Summary – Week 28: Recent vs Old Form

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A huge part of fantasy is picking up a guy just as he’s about to get hot and before others get him, and dropping guys about to go cold. There’s a couple schools of thought about how you can spot these kinds of changes in form.

The first question you have to find an answer to is “Did their situation change?” This happens when something changes either within the team or for the individual player. Be on the lookout for things like position changes, set piece duty changes, and teammates they either play really well with or really poorly with coming into or out of the starting lineup.

If their situation remained the same, the next question to ask is “Which form is their true form? The recent or the old?” In general, I lean toward the old form being their true form when the situation hasn’t changed. Sample size is important and a recent blip doesn’t mean someone is suddenly good or suddenly bad in fantasy.

Here’s a table that compares the last 10 game weeks PPG to the first 18 game weeks PPG. Games were only counted if they played more than 45 minutes. I’ll talk about a couple of the big movers who are fantasy favorites and give some reasons for why their form has changed and whether to trust the new form or the old.

web_nameteam_shortposition_shortPPG difference between first 18 weeks and last 10Minutes weeks 19-28PPG weeks 19-28Minutes weeks 1-18PPG weeks 1-18
HairstonCOLDEF6.2426103973.8
DempseySEAFWD4.29094188.29773.9091
PetersonSKCMID3.714362865572.2857
AcostaDCFWD3.41676966.58683.0833
Wright-PhillipsNYFWD2.88887298.444415175.5556
MoralesRSLMID2.67677977.22229544.5455
WatsonNEDEF2.41675406.166710523.75
DonadelMTLMID2.333347954862.6667
MolinoORLMID2.33335248.333313006
OlaveRSLDEF2.1255405.56713.375
BarnettaPHIMID1.98298106.444411204.4615
GiovincoTORFWD1.819477610.444414388.625
KljestanNYMID1.79417088.513996.7059
NocerinoORLMID1.79174923.66676191.875
FinlayCLBMID1.76674876.166712534.4
OyongoMTLDEF1.756775.510803.75
AccamCHIMID1.71114507.67915.8889
J TaylorPORDEF1.74505.212603.5
FagundezNEMID1.66673925.612003.9333
SamDCMID1.63465986.259804.6154
BirnbaumDCDEF1.61118105.777810804.1667
KnightonNEGKP1.554504.83603.25
BeltranRSLDEF1.47326154.285714402.8125
PowellPORDEF1.469458753.6
GruezoDALMID1.45054.666712493.2667
SaiedCLBMID1.33344925.16679793.8333
AlvarezCHIMID1.25453785.88554.5455
AlexHOUMID1.23217205.87511994.6429
ColeLADEF1.09627204.2511413.1538
dos SantosLAFWD1.08468957.711076.6154
DwyerSKCFWD1.04177085.87515984.8333
WilliamsTORDEF1.03334345.24754.1667
MillerCOLDEF15404.58493.5
LabaVANMID0.97226754.7515863.7778
DelgadoTORMID0.95456864.59133.5455
RogersLADEF0.91673605.258104.3333
TierneyNEDEF0.86517725.222212274.3571
FarrellNEDEF0.83348104.666716203.8333
MaundRSLDEF0.78333604.2513503.4667
AcostaDALMID0.76675405.166712604.4
KakáORLMID0.756538.6257097.875
LletgetLAMID0.70245795.28579884.5833
GerrardLAMID0.74397.68666.9
EspinozaSKCMID0.69926154.857117034.1579
MeramCLBMID0.68756726.2512795.5625
PhillipsRSLDEF0.66668105.44447874.7778
MorrowTORDEF0.63026305.571414384.9412
WastonVANDEF0.6257204.62512204
NyarkoDCMID0.61115976.57475.8889
BarriosDALMID0.60515825.428613434.8235
RodriguezHOUDEF0.64504.612604
GodoySJMID0.58345385.166710484.5833
HernandezNYCDEF0.5556426416033.4444
MeiraCHIDEF0.51956304.42869403.9091
Perez GarciaORLMID0.48894004.66504.1111
AdiPORFWD0.48537045.2514174.7647
OparaSKCDEF0.47274505.29074.7273
DavisNYMID0.46435895.71433605.25
WattsCOLDEF0.428636056304.5714
ZubarNYDEF0.41566305.14299314.7273
CocisCHIMID0.44185.68735.2
BrillantNYCDEF0.3757204.87516204.5
BeitashourTORDEF0.3756744.7514384.375
BeckermanRSLMID0.37278954.19903.7273
GoncalvesNEDEF0.36818103.555614403.1875
GashiCOLFWD0.333360869645.6667
AlstonORLDEF0.33338102.44447772.1111
OlumSKCMID0.31674504.410034.0833
FigueroaDALDEF0.28894504.416204.1111
AmarikwaSJFWD0.2857455411783.7143
DawkinsSJMID0.28576134.714311984.4286
Van DammeLADEF0.28337034.7513264.4667
GladRSLDEF0.26797204.62512604.3571
RosenberryPHIDEF0.25799004.117103.8421
CharaPORMID0.2546084.142916203.8889
RoweNEMID0.25298664.915164.6471
MorrisSEAFWD0.22797104.87514444.6471
RoldanSEAMID0.21367994.444411154.2308
CimanMTLDEF0.19647204.62512234.4286
PontiusPHIMID0.18898495.313505.1111
TrappCLBMID0.16675404.166716024
HarveyVANDEF0.1579360417103.8421
MelanoPORFWD0.1579566415653.8421
BendikORLGKP0.15569004.116203.9444
DuvallNYDEF0.14504.48884.3
BinghamSJGKP0.08337204.7516204.6667
MulhollandRSLMID0.06826444.258664.1818
ShuttleworthNEGKP0.06674504.213504.1333
UrrutiDALFWD0.0625565513874.9375
WingertRSLDEF0.04623992.210252.1538
PolsterCHIMID0.04176644.3757894.3333
OsorioTORMID0.02777954.444410384.4167
MovsisyanRSLFWD0420514735
McNamaraNYCMID-0.01795694.857111944.875
CamaraMTLDEF-0.04559004.59664.5455
BernardezSJDEF-0.06947684.555614264.625
JewsburyPORMID-0.08575943.71434503.8
MateosORLDEF-0.09727093.1258103.2222
PlataRSLFWD-0.12868746.312186.4286
TribbettPHIDEF-0.13334504.28104.3333
FabinhoPHIDEF-0.13498104.222212094.3571
WoodberryNEDEF-0.14296303.85719624
RoweLAGKP-0.14388045.444415115.5882
CaldwellNEMID-0.19617153.333314023.5294
LarinORLFWD-0.22227805.777811506
DeLeonDCMID-0.2353525314913.2353
TchaniCLBMID-0.23816254.42867964.6667
WynneSJDEF-0.26056303.857114974.1176
ParkhurstCLBDEF-0.27777943.666716093.9444
LawrenceNYDEF-0.34502.88563.1
ZimmermanDALDEF-0.30156305.142916205.4444
ParkerVANDEF-0.3158540317103.3158
CarrascoORLMID-0.33337643.55567873.8889
KoffieNEMID-0.363648348934.3636
MaidanaHOUMID-0.37145314.42866984.8
YaroPHIDEF-0.3753604.57164.875
BurchCOLDEF-0.38898104.444410764.8333
B GarciaHOUMID-0.476958265.4
HarrisDALDEF-0.41436084.28578724.7
JeffreyDCMID-0.428637536043.4286
IraolaNYCDEF-0.44045614.142910804.5833
PirloNYCMID-0.4444772515575.4444
ToiaMTLDEF-0.45245403.83336304.2857
HinesORLDEF-0.4615531411704.4615
RimandoRSLGKP-0.46679004.213504.6667
KempDCDEF-0.47227204.2516204.7222
OustedVANGKP-0.47788104.222218004.7
S WilliamsHOUDEF-0.48898052.11114342.6
NagbePORMID-0.5720512455.5
SaundersNYCGKP-0.53898104.111118004.65
MarshallSEADEF-0.54177204.12513104.6667
MarquezPHIDEF-0.54449003.416203.9444
PowersCOLMID-0.55567734.11117834.6667
SarvasDCMID-0.56256724.87513995.4375
ClarkHOUMID-0.61114963.666715794.2778
IvanschitzSEAMID-0.64295254.285711074.9286
CerenORLMID-0.66665403.16679903.8333
ClarkCLBGKP-0.6667810416204.6667
BlakePHIGKP-0.66678104.222216204.8889
CollinNYDEF-0.66677504.11118094.7778
MuylNYMID-0.6756403.1253913.8
VillaNYCFWD-0.67766926.37517107.0526
LampardNYCMID-0.68898027.11113697.8
CreavallePHIMID-0.761948524.7
BoatengLAFWD-0.70836184.1254884.8333
de JongLAMID-0.754973.510604.25
RoblesNYGKP-0.76678104.333318005.1
GleesonPORGKP-0.7692810411704.7692
FeilhaberSKCMID-0.79177065.87513236.6667
QuinteroSJMID-0.82227074.111111354.9333
SteresLADEF-0.84669474.090914404.9375
FelipeNYMID-0.85968104.666716345.5263
WillisHOUGKP-0.88898104.22227915.1111
SolignacCHIFWD-0.91675363.510274.4167
JacobsonVANMID-0.9167495310493.9167
CroninCOLMID-18003.444416114.4444
MearsSEADEF-17202.87514403.875
AlasheSJMID-15312.666712823.6667
Abdul-SalaamSKCDEF-16113.142912354.1429
BradleyTORMID-1540510806
VincentCHIDEF-170839904
JohnsonCHIGKP-17203.8757204.875
BushMTLGKP-17703.111116204.1111
AnibabaHOUDEF-1.03188103.111112484.1429
BodenORLDEF-1.06358103.22225504.2857
HorstHOUDEF-1.07145893.428614404.5
CabreraMTLDEF-1.0833450410805.0833
PiattiMTLMID-1.10468076.777815307.8824
FranklinDCDEF-1.11117833.333316204.4444
ZizzoNYDEF-1.125377314364.125
WarnerHOUMID-1.15877432.55566143.7143
KappelhofCHIDEF-1.1875785314404.1875
KudoVANFWD-1.236133784.2
MustivarSKCMID-1.21674453.210704.4167
BoswellDCDEF-1.257203.2514404.5
AffulCLBDEF-1.25686414125.25
HarrisonNYCMID-1.26195984.57145115.8333
CampbellCHIDEF-1.28477663.777814405.0625
MoorTORDEF-1.31259004.514405.8125
RidgewellPORDEF-1.33345402.833310804.1667
BunburyNEMID-1.37184442.16679973.5385
SeitzDALGKP-1.41076303.714314405.125
AlonsoSEAMID-1.41677205.2515916.6667
BolañosVANMID-1.42866174.571411026
MartinezRSLFWD-1.44298534.212145.6429
ValeriPORMID-1.45838056.666714028.125
DeLaGarzaLADEF-1.45837202.87510704.3333
GrellaNYMID-1.47226573.7514695.2222
SjobergCOLDEF-1.49317914.444414405.9375
IlsinhoPHIMID-1.539135634.5
WondolowskiSJFWD-1.60328064.111112605.7143
K. KamaraNEFWD-1.6257093.37515095
HollingsheadDALMID-1.64624093.211554.8462
FreiSEAGKP-1.7198103.222215304.9412
BurlingCOLDEF-1.84503.88745.6
EvansSEADEF-1.83337203.510745.3333
LarentowiczLAMID-1.8815523.28575115.1667
MedrandaSKCMID-1.89754873.333311105.2308
HedgesDALDEF-1.94237203.7511635.6923
K DoyleCOLFWD-1.96157202.511704.4615
SapongPHIFWD-2.02227873.111113135.1333
AllenNYCDEF-2.090940549676.0909
DíazDALMID-2.09896126.285711118.3846
BarnesHOUFWD-2.24244992.66679824.9091
ZardesLAFWD-2.254943.833310806.0833
MenaNYCDEF-2.41675123.83333606.25
NguyenNEMID-2.4444873415786.4444
HamidDCGKP-2.66668103.66675406.3333
ZavaletaTORDEF-2.84503.44476.2
O. KamaraCLBFWD-2.8756895.257208.125
DrogbaMTLFWD-2.87565756997.875
JonesSEADEF-2.90836311.62513074.5333
KeaneLAFWD-3.545036756.5
MoralesVANMID-3.66676713.759977.4167

Hairston: starting playing as a winger instead of defender. If he can get his starting spot back after injury, I think he lands somewhere between the new and old form.

Acosta: Patrick Mullins changed the dynamic of this team. I think this is Acosta’s new standard.

BWP: Situation is the same. But his early season woes were well documented and we predicted he’d get out of the rut based on his expected goals. His true output is slightly lower than current, but not nearly as bad as the start of the season.

Giovinco: He’s better with Jozy on the field, despite what Mr. Guy Sanchez says. Plus they’ve had more home games in the second period because of the massive away trip TFC had to start the season. Now out with injury, but I think his form will hold.

Kljestan: exact same as BWP.

Finlay: This one is hard to call as I didn’t believe last year’s Finlay was the true Finlay, and his recent form isn’t even up to those standards. I think his early season was a blip and his last 10 are closer to what we can expect.

Accam: New forward in de Leeuw helps this team’s spacing in attack. I think the recent Accam is the real Accam.

Dos Santos: It has recently been pointed out by several people that his production suffers greatly with Keane on the field. And Keane is about to come back on the field. I think he moves back toward his first-period form.

P.Morales: His PKs dried up and so did his points, just as predicted.

Keane: Age looks like it is finally catching up to him as he battles more injuries. I think his form moving forward lands somewhere between 3 and 6.5 PPG. Losing Zardes hurts Keane massively as he has to deal with center backs more.

Drogba: I think the injuries are taking their toll recently but I don’t expect him to remain this poor.

Ola Kamara: During his ridiculous hot streak earlier this season, he wasn’t outperforming expected goals. Now he’s under performing and I think that is just a temporary blip and he’ll be scoring again soon.

Nguyen: New England have suddenly come to life in attack with the formation shift, but I think it is at the expense of Nguyen and I don’t expect much from him moving forward.

Diaz: This one surprised me to see him fall so far. Losing Castillo means defenses can shift easier to cover Diaz. I think he gets a minor bump over recent form.

Sapong: I honestly don’t follow the Union enough to know if anything has changed for him… sorry.

Valeri: Jewsbury takes set pieces away from Valeri, meaning fewer bonus points. Once Jewsbury gets booted to the bench, Valeri will be back.

Piatti: I think this is closer to what we can expect from Piatti. His expected goals have been way lower than his actual goals all season.

About Andrew Crollard

Andrew has worked as both an economist/data analyst and as a university and youth soccer coach. Naturally, marrying soccer and data together is a perfect fit.

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2 comments

  1. Interesting there’s no take on either Villa or Lampard. Personally I’m giving myself a throat punch for not adding Lampard weeks ago.

    • I didn’t comment on them because their form in the two periods was pretty similar. What you’re seeing is what you get from those guys.

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