Week 18 xG Match Up Rankings

With unlimited transfers this season, match ups are more important than ever. The question is how to evaluate match ups, especially if you’re only an aspiring Armchair Analyst and not yet the real thing. The answer? Expected Goals (xG).

What are expected goals (xG)

The idea behind xG is simple. Every shot is awarded a probability of scoring based on the position on the field and the game situation, based on giant databases of shots from years and years of data. Then at the end of the game all the xGs from the individual shots are added up to generate the team’s xG for that game. This metric is a useful measure of the teams overall attacking or defending play, more so than just looking at how many goals a team has scored or allowed. If you’d like to learn more, there’s a nice video by MLS to explain further:

http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2017/04/24/what-are-expected-goals-learn-what-you-need-know-about-statistic

How to use these rankings

The rankings below use the xG metric to rank the match ups each week to help you determine which teams you should try to choose your attackers or defenders from. Each teams score is an average of their xG/g and their opponent’s xG/g separated out into offense/defense and home/away match ups. For example, if Atlanta plays NYCFC at home. Atlanta has an average home xG/g is 1.62 and NYCFC’s has an average away xG/g allowed is 0.96 for an offensive xG score  of 1.29 xG. The reverse can be done to calculate their defensive score for this week. The game by game xG numbers are taken from Ben Baer’s weekly xG article.

Week 18 Offense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Offense: Match up calculated using season xG average.

Form Offense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games.

Week 19 Rank	Team	Opponent	H/A	Season OFF	Form OFF
1	NE Revolution	NYRB	H	1.84	1.81
2	LA Galaxy	RSL	H	1.56	1.78
3	Houston Dynamo	MTL	H	1.66	1.42
4	Portland Timbers	CHI	H	1.51	1.56
5	Minnesota United	CLB	H	1.48	1.39
6	Orlando City	TOR	H	1.36	1.51
7	Sporting Kansas City	PHI	H	1.33	1.53
8	Toronto	OCSC	A	1.36	1.46
9	Atlanta United	SJE	H	1.32	1.41
10	FC Dallas	DCU	H	1.37	1.26
11	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	NYCFC	H	1.18	1.33
12	NY Red Bulls	NER	A	1.01	1.49
13	Colorado Rapids	SEA	H	1.23	1.26
14	Columbus Crew	MIN	A	1.26	1.14
15	Chicago Fire	POR	A	1.14	1.22
16	RSL	LAG	A	1.08	1.2
17	NYCFC	VAN	A	1.06	1.12
18	Seattle Sounders	COL	A	1.04	1
19	Montreal Impact	HOU	A	0.88	0.96
20	DC United	FCD	A	0.87	0.94
21	Philadelphia Union	SKC	A	0.77	0.81
22	San Jose Earthquakes	ATL	A	0.83	0.75

Week 18 Defense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Defense: Match up calculated using season xG average.

Form Defense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games.

Week 17 Rank	Team	Opponent	H/A	Season DEF	Form DEF
1	Atlanta United	SJE	H	0.83	0.75
2	Sporting Kansas City	PHI	H	0.77	0.81
3	FC Dallas	DCU	H	0.87	0.94
4	Houston Dynamo	MTL	H	0.88	0.96
5	Colorado Rapids	SEA	H	1.04	1
6	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	NYCFC	H	1.06	1.12
7	LA Galaxy	RSL	H	1.08	1.2
8	Portland Timbers	CHI	H	1.14	1.22
9	Minnesota United	CLB	H	1.26	1.14
10	Seattle Sounders	COL	H	1.23	1.26
11	NE Revolution	NYRB	A	1.01	1.49
12	NYCFC	VAN	A	1.18	1.33
13	DC United	FCD	A	1.37	1.26
14	San Jose Earthquakes	ATL	A	1.32	1.41
15	Orlando City	TOR	H	1.36	1.46
16	Philadelphia Union	SKC	A	1.33	1.53
17	Columbus Crew	MIN	A	1.48	1.39
18	Toronto	OCSC	A	1.36	1.51
19	Chicago Fire	POR	A	1.51	1.56
20	Montreal Impact	HOU	A	1.66	1.42
21	RSL	LAG	A	1.56	1.78
22	NY Red Bulls	NER	A	1.84	1.81