2017 Round 28 Expected Player Offensive Points

Every week, I’ll be publishing a list of top players ranked by expected offensive points. “Offensive points” includes expected shots, goals, assists, and key passes based on the weekly matchup(s) and past performance. It also includes the 2 points the player would receive for playing 60+ minutes. Sadly, offensive bonus points (except key passes) are not included at this time. Defensive bonus points are also not currently included because of the limitations of the data set.

Want to know more about how this model works? Click here to read the inaugural article in this series, along with an explanation of the model’s basic premise.

Round 28 Expected Player Offensive Points

First	Last	Team	Min	Shtp96	xGp96	KPp96	xAp96	xOffPt
Fredy	Montero	VAN	2069	3.34	0.56	1.3	0.13	16.7
Josef	Martinez	ATL	898	4.49	0.66	0.96	0.07	15.0
Cristian	Techera	VAN	1855	2.74	0.29	1.97	0.2	14.0
Christian	Bolanos	VAN	1515	1.77	0.18	2.53	0.26	12.9
Miguel	Almiron	ATL	2202	2.96	0.26	1.83	0.22	11.7
Yordy	Reyna	VAN	597	1.93	0.23	1.45	0.16	11.6
Hector	Villalba	ATL	2013	2.81	0.32	1.24	0.16	11.3
Teal	Bunbury	NE	931	3.71	0.6	1.24	0.13	11.0
Nicolas	Mezquida	VAN	623	1.54	0.09	1.85	0.19	10.1
Lee	Nguyen	NE	2207	1.65	0.32	3.26	0.29	10.1
Bernie	Ibini-Isei	VAN	448	1.93	0.16	1.07	0.11	9.8
Kei	Kamara	NE	2060	3.36	0.38	0.93	0.17	9.3
Alphonso	Davies	VAN	813	1.18	0.12	0.94	0.11	8.9
Yamil	Asad	ATL	2081	1.75	0.11	1.57	0.18	8.8
Joao	Plata	RSL	1987	3.77	0.5	3.43	0.31	8.7
Julian	Gressel	ATL	1532	1.32	0.13	1.32	0.17	8.6
Juan	Agudelo	NE	1511	1.97	0.33	1.4	0.14	8.5
Diego	Fagundez	NE	2073	2.78	0.31	1.16	0.13	8.5
Kenwyne	Jones	ATL	470	1.84	0.24	0.61	0.05	8.5
Ignacio	Piatti	MTL	1936	2.83	0.37	1.74	0.15	8.1
Johan	Venegas	MN	1137	2.36	0.2	1.86	0.24	8.0
Kevin	Molino	MN	2184	1.76	0.31	1.49	0.16	8.0
Christian	Ramirez	MN	1943	2.52	0.42	0.4	0.03	7.8
Abu	Danladi	MN	1027	2.52	0.32	1.12	0.08	7.7
Brek	Shea	VAN	887	1.08	0.09	0.97	0.07	7.7
Blerim	Dzemaili	MTL	1465	3.6	0.24	1.9	0.18	7.6
David	Accam	CHI	1919	2.8	0.43	1.75	0.22	7.6
Nemanja	Nikolic	CHI	2526	3.5	0.58	0.68	0.07	7.6
Kelyn	Rowe	NE	1994	1.59	0.09	1.83	0.25	7.5
Greg	Garza	ATL	2173	0.49	0.05	1.41	0.18	7.5
Ethan	Finlay	MN	1635	1.53	0.25	1	0.15	7.3
Andrew	Jacobson	VAN	1695	0.74	0.08	0.68	0.08	7.1
Bradley	Wright-Phillips	NYRB	2278	3.12	0.53	1.18	0.13	7.0
Marcel	de Jong	VAN	401	0.72	0.02	0.96	0.11	6.9
Tony	Tchani	VAN	1642	0.94	0.08	0.53	0.06	6.9
Sam	Nicholson	MN	468	2.67	0.22	0.82	0.05	6.9
David	Villa	NYC	2260	4.76	0.52	2.51	0.27	6.8
Luis	Silva	RSL	1552	2.97	0.43	1.11	0.11	6.7
Romain	Alessandrini	LA	2047	3.66	0.32	2.77	0.35	6.7
Sebastian	Saucedo	RSL	597	4.02	0.25	1.77	0.29	6.6
Cristian	Colman	DAL	932	3.5	0.53	0.52	0.1	6.5
Miguel	Ibarra	MN	1477	1.23	0.11	1.3	0.15	6.4
Tim	Parker	VAN	2276	0.72	0.09	0.08	0.03	6.4
Yura	Movsisyan	RSL	1471	2.87	0.47	0.85	0.12	6.4
Bashkim	Kadrii	MN	461	2.5	0.12	0.62	0.1	6.3
Fredrik	Gulbrandsen	NYRB	404	3.09	0.33	0.95	0.26	6.3
Jefferson	Savarino	RSL	1457	3.36	0.27	1.91	0.23	6.3
Kendall	Waston	VAN	1804	0.69	0.07	0.21	0.04	6.3
Albert	Rusnak	RSL	2243	2.87	0.19	3.3	0.24	6.3
Daniel	Royer	NYRB	1673	2.58	0.44	0.98	0.13	6.2
Sebastian	Giovinco	TOR	1971	5.6	0.48	1.51	0.17	6.2

Min = total minutes played
Shtp96 = shots per 96 minutes
xGp96 = expected goals per 96 minutes
KPp96 = key passes per 96 minutes
xAp96 = expected assists per 96 minutes
xOffPt = total expected offensive points

Analysis

No real reason to not go all-out on DGW players this week, as long as you can safely predict they’ll play the majority of both games. The closest I’d get to a single-game-week player would be Joao Plata, but he’s behind forwards Montero, Josef Martinez (or Villalba), and Kei Kamara (or Juan Agudelo) in total points expected for this week. The other SGW player to possibly consider would be Ignacio Piatti, but at $11.7, you’d better have inside knowledge he’s going to score to deserve spending that much on him this round. Otherwise, there are loads of defenders and midfielders in the four DGW teams which easily out-project the rest of the SGW players.

Players on this list who have excellent bonus point production and who should be considered higher floor options this week (given they start all their games, of course!):

• Marcel de Jong: 2.6 BPp96 (bonus points per 96 minutes) – Watch his play time, though. This is a limited sample size, and he probably won’t play both games.
• Kendall Waston: 2.2
• Romain Alessandrini: 1.8
• Kellyn Rowe: 1.7
• Tim Parker: 1.6
• Lee Nguyen: 1.6

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Source data behind the calculations come from American Soccer Analysis.