2017 Round 28 Expected Player Offensive Points

Round 28 Expected Player Offensive Points

Every week, I’ll be publishing a list of top players ranked by expected offensive points. “Offensive points” includes expected shots, goals, assists, and key passes based on the weekly matchup(s) and past performance. It also includes the 2 points the player would receive for playing 60+ minutes. Sadly, offensive bonus points (except key passes) are not included at this time. Defensive bonus points are also not currently included because of the limitations of the data set.

Want to know more about how this model works? Click here to read the inaugural article in this series, along with an explanation of the model’s basic premise.

Round 28 Expected Player Offensive Points

FirstLastTeamMinShtp96xGp96KPp96xAp96xOffPt
FredyMonteroVAN20693.340.561.30.1316.7
JosefMartinezATL8984.490.660.960.0715.0
CristianTecheraVAN18552.740.291.970.214.0
ChristianBolanosVAN15151.770.182.530.2612.9
MiguelAlmironATL22022.960.261.830.2211.7
YordyReynaVAN5971.930.231.450.1611.6
HectorVillalbaATL20132.810.321.240.1611.3
TealBunburyNE9313.710.61.240.1311.0
NicolasMezquidaVAN6231.540.091.850.1910.1
LeeNguyenNE22071.650.323.260.2910.1
BernieIbini-IseiVAN4481.930.161.070.119.8
KeiKamaraNE20603.360.380.930.179.3
AlphonsoDaviesVAN8131.180.120.940.118.9
YamilAsadATL20811.750.111.570.188.8
JoaoPlataRSL19873.770.53.430.318.7
JulianGresselATL15321.320.131.320.178.6
JuanAgudeloNE15111.970.331.40.148.5
DiegoFagundezNE20732.780.311.160.138.5
KenwyneJonesATL4701.840.240.610.058.5
IgnacioPiattiMTL19362.830.371.740.158.1
JohanVenegasMN11372.360.21.860.248.0
KevinMolinoMN21841.760.311.490.168.0
ChristianRamirezMN19432.520.420.40.037.8
AbuDanladiMN10272.520.321.120.087.7
BrekSheaVAN8871.080.090.970.077.7
BlerimDzemailiMTL14653.60.241.90.187.6
DavidAccamCHI19192.80.431.750.227.6
NemanjaNikolicCHI25263.50.580.680.077.6
KelynRoweNE19941.590.091.830.257.5
GregGarzaATL21730.490.051.410.187.5
EthanFinlayMN16351.530.2510.157.3
AndrewJacobsonVAN16950.740.080.680.087.1
BradleyWright-PhillipsNYRB22783.120.531.180.137.0
Marcelde JongVAN4010.720.020.960.116.9
TonyTchaniVAN16420.940.080.530.066.9
SamNicholsonMN4682.670.220.820.056.9
DavidVillaNYC22604.760.522.510.276.8
LuisSilvaRSL15522.970.431.110.116.7
RomainAlessandriniLA20473.660.322.770.356.7
SebastianSaucedoRSL5974.020.251.770.296.6
CristianColmanDAL9323.50.530.520.16.5
MiguelIbarraMN14771.230.111.30.156.4
TimParkerVAN22760.720.090.080.036.4
YuraMovsisyanRSL14712.870.470.850.126.4
BashkimKadriiMN4612.50.120.620.16.3
FredrikGulbrandsenNYRB4043.090.330.950.266.3
JeffersonSavarinoRSL14573.360.271.910.236.3
KendallWastonVAN18040.690.070.210.046.3
AlbertRusnakRSL22432.870.193.30.246.3
DanielRoyerNYRB16732.580.440.980.136.2
SebastianGiovincoTOR19715.60.481.510.176.2
Min = total minutes played
Shtp96 = shots per 96 minutes
xGp96 = expected goals per 96 minutes
KPp96 = key passes per 96 minutes
xAp96 = expected assists per 96 minutes
xOffPt = total expected offensive points

Analysis

No real reason to not go all-out on DGW players this week, as long as you can safely predict they’ll play the majority of both games. The closest I’d get to a single-game-week player would be Joao Plata, but he’s behind forwards Montero, Josef Martinez (or Villalba), and Kei Kamara (or Juan Agudelo) in total points expected for this week. The other SGW player to possibly consider would be Ignacio Piatti, but at $11.7, you’d better have inside knowledge he’s going to score to deserve spending that much on him this round. Otherwise, there are loads of defenders and midfielders in the four DGW teams which easily out-project the rest of the SGW players.

Players on this list who have excellent bonus point production and who should be considered higher floor options this week (given they start all their games, of course!):

  • Marcel de Jong: 2.6 BPp96 (bonus points per 96 minutes) – Watch his play time, though. This is a limited sample size, and he probably won’t play both games.
  • Kendall Waston: 2.2
  • Romain Alessandrini: 1.8
  • Kellyn Rowe: 1.7
  • Tim Parker: 1.6
  • Lee Nguyen: 1.6

For more fantasy data and insights every round, follow @MLSFantasyStats on Twitter.

Source data behind the calculations come from American Soccer Analysis.

About Ryan Anderson

Ryan started out in fantasy football in 2015 and decided to take his analytical abilities to the MLS world in 2017. He is the founder of MLS Fantasy Stats, producing the first and only analytics-based weekly player projections in MLS Fantasy community. He is pursuing a master’s degree in business analytics, and he lives with his lovely wife in St. Anthony, MN.

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