Today I would like to debut the first article in the Community Tips of the Week series. For more information on how you can become a Community Contributor, take some time to read over this post.
This article was created by MLSFB Chat regular and /r/FantasyMLS user Qrterlber. You can find his discussion post on this topic here.
So Dashdar explained how the new pricing system is going to work this year. Now we will investigate how it will affect player prices. First off, I figured out what the average score (+45 Minutes) per position was each week. On average Goalkeepers, Midfielders and Forwards need to score 8 or more to rise and 1 or less to drop. Below are some examples from last year to see how the new pricing will affect players value throughout the season. I have picked one good player and one bad player in order to see any contrast.
As you can see there is not much difference between last years system and this years pricing system. Lets look at weeks where Hamid price rose with this years system, weeks: 10,12,13,21,24,25,26 29. One things that all these rounds have is a clean sheet. Goalkeepers don’t tend to earn many big points outside of clean sheets and with 2 goals conceded giving you -1 points, keeping clean sheets is very important. Each of these weeks also has at least 3 saves. He also had at least 12 Recoveries.So in order for Hamid to go up then he needed to play +60 minutes, get a clean sheet and made at least 3 saves, and 12 recoveries (2+4+1+2=9).
Hamid never dropped any value. He only received one yellow card all season and never a red. His team only conceded 4 or more goals once during the season. But he always made it up with recoveries.
Here I have pulled the data for a bad goalkeeper and see how much difference there was in between pricing methods. As you can see by the end of the season Dan Kennedy’s price is not very different.
Dan Kennedy rose in price during weeks: 17,23 and 33. During these weeks Dan Kennedy got a clean sheet,and either 3 saves and 6 recoveries or 12 recoveries (2+4+1+1).
Unlike Hamid, Dan Kennedy dropped value during weeks: 8, 26, 29. Kennedy received a red card in week 8 so he dropped $0.3. During week 26 and 29 he conceded 4 goals but unlike Hamid, Kennedy did not have the recoveries to prevent the price drop.
Now that we will look at two defenders. Omar Gonzalez is a beast. I thought having someone that missed a big chunk of the season would be useful to analyze. Unlike the goalkeepers, Omar does have a $1 difference in price between pricing methods this with having been gone most of the summer.
Omar rose in price during weeks: 5,6,21,24,24,25,27,29,30.
During these weeks Omar played +60 minutes, scored a goal or got a clean sheet, and at least 2 points from CBI’s and Recoveries(2+4+2). In order to get those $0.2 points rise you need to score a goal and get other big points such as a clean sheet, earn a penalty, earn an assist or even score another goal.
Omar did drop in value in week 32 but that was because he earned a red card.
Now we will look at Shane O’neil from the Colorado Rapids. Shane rose in value during weeks: 12, 14, 16. In all three weeks Shane either scored a goal or received a clean sheet and accumulated over 6 CBI’s.
Shane fell in weeks 8, 14, 28. In week 8 and 28 he conceded 4 goals so he fell $.01. In week 14 Shane failed to gather any bonus points and conceded 2 goals. A defender who fails to gather bonus points will most likely fall in value if their team concedes more than 2 goals.
Now we are at midfielders and we start by paying homage to the greatest american soccer player Landon Donovan. Donovan rose on weeks 5,12,20,21,24,24,26,29,30. Landon was a beast
last year racking up weeks with over 20 points in a single game. He also never got a red card so never dropped in value. I doubt anyone will rise higher than $2M this year.
Now we will look at how a defensive mid in a bad team fared. Nick raised in value during weeks: 8,20. These were the only weeks where LaBrocca made an assist or scored a goal.
Nick dropped in value during weeks 4,14,26,27. In these games he did not receive any bonus points and was shown yellow cards. If you are picking a midfielder be careful and make sure he gets bonus points consistently so he will not drop in value if he gets a yellow card.
Lastly we look at forwards and they are not that different from midfielders. Keane rose in weeks: 3,5,7,10,12,19,21,22,24,25,29,30. Keane scored a lot of goals and assist during these weeks. Its also pertinent to point out that attacking players are more likely to score big points and go up higher in value.
Keane dropped value during weeks: 9, 27. It is interesting to note that Keane missed penalties during these two weeks and was not able to score any BP’s. You need your forwards to get at least 2 points in order to stay safe, most weeks, from dropping value.
Lastly we have Bruin a notorious bad forward (he always let me down). He rose in value during weeks 1,8,9,10. He scored goals during these weeks. Strikers need to score goals in order to raise in value.
During weeks 16, and 24 he dropped in value.In these weeks he did not do anything and received no BPs. If a striker does not get BPs he will be in danger to drop in value.
Hope you liked this analysis on price value and hope it at least starts conversation on the subject because just like in real life money is a key indicator for success in soccer.